Forex Trading Center

The US Federal Reserve yesterday upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy, saying growth had returned after a deep recession. As expected, the Fed kept its target for its federal funds rate set at a range of zero to 0.25%. The previously weakened Dollar had been propping up commodity prices. Following the US Crude Oil Inventory report yesterday, oil prices dropped nearly 4% to below $68.50 a barrel. The Fed statement, which pushed the US Dollar up, only helped extend these decreases in oil prices.

USD – Dollar Optimism High Following Fed Statements

The Dollar rallied yesterday against most of its major counterparts amid concern that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its efforts to lift the economy out of recession. The Dollar has been sold-off recently partially due to growing optimism about the outlook for the U.S. economy. The USD finished yesterday’s trading session 100 pips higher against the EUR at the1.4700 level.

The Federal Reserve yesterday upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy, saying growth had returned after a deep recession. As expected, the Fed kept its target for its federal funds rate set at a range of zero to 0.25%. The Fed repeated that it continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

The Fed also said it would slow its purchases of mortgage debt to extend that program’s life until the end of March, in a move toward withdrawing the central bank’s extraordinary support for the economy and markets during the contraction. Analysts had expected the move, which smoothes out the purchases.

Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicators scheduled to be released from the U.S. are the Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales at 12:30 GMT and 14:00 GMT respectively. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a stronger than expected result may continue to boost the USD in the short-term. Traders are also advised to follow FOMC member Evan’s speech at around 14:30 GMT. This speech is very important as it is likely to impact the Dollar’s volatility. Traders are advised to watch closely, as this is likely to set the pace of the Dollar’s movements going into the rest of the week’s trading.

EUR – EUR Declines as Stock Market Falls

The EUR fell to session lows against the U.S. Dollar yesterday, weighed down by declines in stocks following early gains. This came after the Federal Reserve signaled that interest rates will remain low for some time. By yesterday’s close, the EUR had fallen against the USD, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.4700. The EUR experienced similar behavior against the GBP and closed at 0.9000.

Europe’s manufacturing and service industries expanded for a second month in September, suggesting that the Euro-Zone regional economy is gathering strength and showing signs of emerging from its worst recession in more than six decades after governments stepped up stimulus measures and the European Central Bank (ECB) injected billions of euros into markets.

In addition, European economic confidence rose to a 10-month high in August but rising unemployment is a reason to remain prudent about the economic outlook.

Investors may look for the unusual price volatility to continue in the EUR/USD as the pair attempts to stabilize and find new support and resistance lines. Large price jumps such as these are not common place and present terrific opportunities to take advantage of the price swings for large profitable gains.

JPY – Yen Trading Down against Currency Rivals

The Japanese Yen saw a bearish trading session yesterday, losing ground against most of its currency crosses. The JPY fell against the USD after several days of recovery, while the GBP/JPY cross also rose to around 149.40. The only economic events out of Japan yesterday were the trade balance figures; only slightly changed from forecasts as volatility was kept to a minimum.

Japan’s exports fell in August for an 11th consecutive month as recovery struggled to gain traction in the island economy. Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa said last week that he is concerned the recovery may not outlast the worldwide stimulus packages that boosted demand for the country’s cars and electronics. The central bank cited exports as the main reason for raising its assessment of the economy last week, as record unemployment and slumping wages weaken consumer spending.

Another headwind for Japanese exporters is an appreciating currency. The yen has gained more than 7% against the Dollar in the past six months, threatening to erode companies’ profits earned abroad.

Crude Oil – Oil Drops as Inventory Rises; Demand Concern?

Oil prices dropped nearly 4% to below $68.50 a barrel during yesterday’s trading session. This drop came after a U.S. government report showed Crude Oil inventories rose more than expected, rekindling worries that energy demand in the world’s biggest consumer will be slow to recover in the wake of the recession.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the inventories rose to 2.8 million barrels in the week September 18, against analysts’ expectations of a 1.5 million barrel decline.

A weak Dollar had been propping up prices recently. The greenback was narrowly mixed against the JPY, EUR and GBP on Wednesday. Oil, like other commodities, is priced in dollars so when the U.S. currency weakens, commodities become cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

As for today, traders should pay attention to the U.S Unemployment Claims report as it has tended to have an impact on Crude Oil’s prices recently, especially in the short-term.

Article Source – USD Up on Fed Statements; Oil Sinks on Demand Concerns

The Euro may see near-term gains as Germany’s IFO Survey shows that business confidence in the Euro Zone’s largest economy rose for the third straight month to hit the highest level since May 2008, but sentiment may not be supportive in the longer term.

Key Overnight Developments

• Japanese Trade Surplus Shrinks on Export Weakness
• Australia’s New Home Sales Matched Record Gain in August
• RBA Says Financial System Resilient But Risks Remain

Critical Levels

The Euro consolidated near the 1.47 level in overnight trading, yielding a flat result ahead of the opening bell in Europe. The British Pound advanced, adding as much as 0.3% against the greenback. We continue to hold a short GBPUSD position, initially targeting 1.6112.

Asia Session Highlights

Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance surplus narrowed to 185.7 billion yen in August as overseas shrank -36% from the previous year, marking the 11th consecutive contraction. Economists had expected a greater decline, calling for a 157 billion result. Export volumes shrank for the first time since May, with shipments to the European Union leading the way lower. The data may be hinting that the $12 trillion or so in fiscal stimulus spent by the world’s governments to stabilize growth that had boosted demand for Japanese products may be running out of steam. Indeed Bank of Japan chief Maasaki Shirakawa expressed concern that his country’s economic rebound may survive once worldwide expansionary policies are reversed. A stronger currency may have also contributed to the outcome: the Yen strengthened by 1.9% in trade-weighted terms in August, the most since January. While this would typically raise fears that formerly activist Japanese policymakers will intervene into the markets to drive down the currency, incoming DPJ Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said last week that it was not the government’s job to set exchange rates and that a stronger Yen had its advantages, clearly signaling that Japanese authorities will stand aside from here. The trade balance is expected to continue to contract in the months, with a survey of economists polled by Bloomberg forecasting that net exports will add on average 2.4% to GDP through this year and in 2010, the least since 2001.

Australia’s Housing Industry Association (HIA) reported that New Home Sales surged 11.4% in August, matching the record-setting monthly gain in January 2008. However, property sales began to rebound in May after the government extended a scheme offering an A$21,000 grant for first-time home buyers, so it still remains suspect whether momentum can remain supported after the flow of stimulus cash dries up. Indeed, unemployment continues to climb, with expectations calling for the jobless rate to approach 8% next year, while the HIA’s own Housing Affordability Index fell for the first time in 15 months in the second quarter.

Separately, the RBA’s semi-annual Financial Stability Review was broadly balanced, saying that although the Australian financial system remains resilient and funding conditions for banks have improved, recent progress can owes significantly to government guarantees on lending and loan losses may still rise in the future. The central bank also cautioned that business borrowing has continued to decline (which spells trouble for employment) and the commercial property market has weakened, contributing to the possibility of renewed problems from bad loans ahead.

Euro Session: What to Expect

Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence is expected to show that the pessimists about the economy’s six-month economic climate outlook among polled firms outnumbered the optimists by the narrowest margin since May last year, with the Expectations index rising to 96.6 in September. A reading above 100 suggests the majority of respondents were optimistic, and vice versa. While the improvement may engineer some short-term gains for the Euro in the aftermath of the announcement, it remains questionable whether sentiment will remain supportive as the effects of fiscal stimulus both in Germany and abroad that has boosted domestic demand and exports in recent months are exhausted. As it stands, a survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg suggests that the Euro Zone’s largest economy will underperform all of the G10 excluding Japan this year and remain behind the US and commodity bloc countries (Canada, Australia, New Zealand) into 2010. This suggests the ECB will be among the laggards as central banks begin to lift interest rates from current lows, an outcome that bodes well for business climate surveys (for surely businesses prefer lower borrowing costs to higher ones) but will likely weigh on the single currency.

Article Source – Euro in Play with German IFO to Show Business Outlook Rose for Third Month (Euro Open)

Following two relatively peaceful trading days, today is filled with news publications from the major economies. Starting at 06:45 and until 09:00 (GMT) traders are advised to follow the news events from the Euro-Zone. Later on, the Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 14:30 (GMT). This indicator tends to have an instant impact on Crude Oil prices, and traders should use it with their trading. Finally, at 18:15 (GMT), the Federal Reserve will announce the U.S Interest Rates for September. This promises to create hefty volatility in the market, which should provide various opportunities for traders to enlarge profits.

USD – The Dollar Falls before Federal Reserve Meeting

The U.S Dollar’s weakness resumed, as global investors again embraced risks, reducing safe-haven demand for the U.S. currency, as traders took positions on the first day of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The U.S. Dollar also weakened on speculation that the Group of 20 leaders, meeting in Pittsburgh starting tomorrow, will call for a reduction in global trade imbalances that may cause further gains in the greenback’s counterparts. The greenback traded at $1.4794 per EUR from $1.4790 yesterday, after declining to $1.4842 earlier on, the lowest level since September 22, 2008.

The hard-pressed Dollar had gained some ground Monday as equity markets weakened, with traders tying a decline in risk appetite to caution ahead of the Fed meeting, as well as the summit of Group of 20 leaders at the end of the week. But Tuesday’s resumption of risk appetite may reflect views in the market that neither event is likely to produce meaningful changes analysts said.

Market sentiment toward the USD remains bearish. Analysts expect the Fed to signal its ultra-loose monetary policy will remain in place well into next year. Additionally, as the G20 to discusses rebalancing the global economy this will almost certainly further weaken the Dollar. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged. But markets will seek out clues on the Fed’s asset purchases. Any sign that the Fed intends to continue its quantitative easing measures beyond this year could send the U.S Dollar to record lows.

EUR – Euro Hits $1.48 for the First Time in a Year

The EUR traded at a 1 year high against a sliding Dollar on Wednesday, as traders took advantage of the U.S. currency’s rise the previous day to resume selling ahead of a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The European currency advanced as hopes for a global recovery prompted investors to shift money to higher-yielding currencies from the safe-haven greenback.

In late trading, the EUR was up 0.8% at $1.4796 after options-related demand and strong Asian buying pushed it above $1.48 for the first time since September 2008. European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Axel Weber said on Tuesday recent moves in currency markets were surprising given the Euro-Zone’s economic performance relative to other major economies. Traders expect the $1.4870 level may be the next target in EUR/USD cross, with many predicting an eventual move back to $1.50.

The British Pound also gained against the U.S Dollar for the first time in 4 days, as stocks rallied around the world on evidence that the global economic recovery is accelerating. The British currency advanced 1% to $1.6376. The GBP rose 0.2% against the EUR to 90.33 pence, ending a 6 day losing streak. Against the EUR, the British currency rebounded from near the lowest level in more than 5 months after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recommended selling the common European currency against Sterling.

JPY – Yen Gains as USD Remains Under Pressure

The Japanese Yen extended its gains on Wednesday vs. the greenback as investors unloaded the U.S. currency ahead of meetings by the Federal Reserve and the G20 leaders this week. The currency gained for a 2nd day against the U.S Dollar on speculation world leaders will discuss policies to rebalance global economic growth at the G20 meeting this week. The JPY climbed to 90.82 Yen per Dollar from 91.10, and rose to 134.40 Yen per EUR from 134.76.

The Japanese currency is likely to strengthen further before new Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii takes office this month; he said a strong Yen was generally good as it boosted the purchasing power of Japan’s economy. Fujii subsequently backed away from that comment, but speculation will remain that after sweeping to power last month, the Democratic Party of Japan may try to shift the country away from its reliance on exports and its opposition to Yen strength.

Crude Oil – Crude Rebounds as Inventories are Expected to Decline

Crude Oil prices rose Tuesday to above $72 a barrel, as pressure on the Dollar and expectations for a further drop in U.S. Crude inventories boosted market sentiment. Weekly petroleum data is likely to show that stockpiles of Crude fell again last week, as imports remained low analysts said. Last week, the EIA said Crude Oil Inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels in the week ending Sept. 11, as imports dropped 2.1% from a week ago.

The move in Crude Oil today is likely to be supported by a fresh wave of selling of the U.S. Dollar. Traders will be waiting for U.S. Crude inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Also of interest to commodities traders is leaders of the world’s most powerful economies will convene in Pittsburgh later this week for the G20 Summit.

Article Source – U.S. Interest Rates on Tap

The British Pound may be in for a volatile session ahead as the release of minutes from this month’s Bank of England monetary policy meeting top the economic calendar in European hours. Currency markets were active in overnight after New Zealand GDP unexpectedly expanded and the Chinese central bank deputy governor sounded off against the US Dollar.

Key Overnight Developments

• Currency Surges as New Zealand GDP Unexpectedly Grows in Second Quarter
• USD Drops After PBOC’s Hu Says Dollar-Reserve System Must Change

Critical Levels

The Euro trended higher against the US Dollar in overnight trading, testing as high as 1.4842. The British Pound also advanced, adding as much as 0.4% against the greenback. We continue to hold a short GBPUSD position, initially targeting 1.6112.

Asia Session Highlights

New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product unexpectedly added 0.1% in the three months to June, snapping five consecutive quarters of losses. Economists were forecasting a -0.2% result ahead of the release. The economy shrank -2.1% from a year before, less than the expected -2.6% decline. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was among those calling for a contraction when Governor Alan Bollard said the bank expected to “keep [interest rates] at or below the current level…until the latter part of 2010” at the monetary policy announcement earlier this month, and traders seemingly took today’s release to mean the time table will now accelerate. Indeed, a Credit Suisse gauge of priced-in rate hike expectations for the coming year jumped 13 basis points to a record high and the New Zealand Dollar surged to a fresh 2009 high against a trade-weighted basket of top currencies.

The US Dollar Index (an average of the greenback’s value against six major counterparts) spiked to a fresh yearly low after the Chinese central bank’s deputy governor Hu Xiaolian wrote in a paper posted on the G20 website ahead of the group’s summit in Pittsburg this week that the current crisis was due in part to the Dollar’s role as global reserve currency. Hu, who is also the former director of China’s foreign-exchange authority, went on to say that the world stands at risk of an asset bubble and potentially another crisis akin to the current one if the global monetary system is not changed.

Euro Session: What to Expect

The release of minutes from this month’s Bank of England monetary policy meeting headline the economic calendar in European hours. The announcement itself produced no surprises with interest rates left at 0.5% and the magnitude of quantitative easing unchanged at 175 billion pounds. Just five days later, however, BOE chief Mervyn King gave resoundingly dovish testimony to House of Commons Treasury Committee, saying poor credit growth remains a direct drag on demand and revealing that policymakers are considering cutting the interest rate they pay on bank deposits to encourage idle reserves to be channeled into lending. The latter comment in particular sent the British Pound tumbling, with traders clearly caught off guard as the BOE was seemingly preparing for more, not less, monetary easing despite the recent uptick in leading economic indicators. This creates strong potential for sterling volatility as the markets dissect tonight’s release for any clues on how serious King and company are about the deposit rate idea and when (if ever) such an outcome may be expected. For our part, we speculated ahead of the September 10 rate announcement that the bank was preparing the markets for a change in policy after the asset-buying scheme largely failed to affect lending to the real economy. Indeed, although Mervyn King has said that the BOE was “beginning to see its impact on the supply of broad money,” the M4 measure of money stock grew at an annual pace of just 12.6% in August, the slowest in a year, while central bank’s own data showed net lending shrank for the first time in at least 16 years in July.

Separately, the British Bankers Association’s measure of Loans for House Purchase is set to show that mortgage approvals rose by 40,500 in August, the most since February 2008, hinting at stabilization in the property market. Earlier this week, a report from Rightmove Plc showed that UK house prices fell the least in a year in September, saying “confidence is up, stock is down and the number of people searching is high.” However, as we noted earlier, the rebound may have a hard time retaining traction with consumer sentiment apparently tracking equities and therefore is vulnerable to a (long overdue) correction in risky assets while unemployment continues to rise, with a survey of economists polled by Bloomberg calling for the jobless rate to top 9% next year.

Turning to the continent, a handful of Purchasing Manager Index releases are expected to come in broadly positive. In Germany, the manufacturing sector is expected to expand for the first time in 14 months while the pace of expansion in the service industry picks up to the fastest since April 2008. Manufacturing will likely continue to shrink in the Euro Zone as a whole but the rate of decline is set to moderate to the slowest since the sector first began to contract in May last year. The improvement can likely be attributed to the continued rebuilding of inventories after firms cut production and exhausted their stocks of goods last year and through the first quarter of 2009 amid the global economic downturn. Still, Industrial New Orders are expected to shrink -25.9% in the year to July, suggesting the pace of demand contraction will remain within the range noted since November of last year.

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst
Article Source – British Pound Volatility Threat High as Currency Markets Focus on BOE Minutes (Euro Open)

There is likely to be less volatility in the market today with almost no market moving data on tap from Japan Europe and Unites States. Yet, few fundamental events that are due out later today may indeed create a remarkable wave in the market, especially towards the late afternoon hours.

USD – USD Ups and Downs Result of Market Uncertainty

The US Dollar experienced an exciting trading day on Monday as a rise in risk averse trading helped add an early morning boost, followed by a retracing of Friday’s levels. Against the EUR, the greenback climbed to as high as 1.4610 before coming back down and closing the day at 1.4717. Versus the British Pound, the USD gained as much as 90 pips, with a high mark of 1.6134, before coming back up and closing out the trading day at the 1.6250 level.

With a decision regarding the Federal Funds Rate looming, traders are becoming more aware of the potential delay in any increase to short-term interest rates due to the instability of global economies recently. Britain has made similar overtures, as did the Euro-Zone in its recent discussions. However, the question still remains over whether the global economy is indeed recovering as many were expecting. This uncertainty drives many investors back into safe-havens for the short-run until things become clearer.

As far as the North-Western Hemisphere is concerned today, the United States is not due to release much data of concern. Canada, on the other hand, is going to release vital data regarding its retail sales levels, which last week caused a stir among the USD and EUR. Growth in Canadian sales may help return the Loonie back to a bullish posture, but forecasts appear modest at best. This Wednesday’s US interest rate decision appears to be this week’s primary event for Dollar traders.

EUR – EUR Benefits from USD and GBP Aversion

The EUR continued its rally against most currencies, save the USD, in yesterday’s trading; making considerable inroads against the GBP especially. Climbing as high as 0.9076 versus the Pound and upwards of 135.48 against the Japanese Yen, the EUR may indeed be one of the primary beneficiaries of market growth, and the continuing uncertainty.

Investors appear ready to make the shift into riskier assets to return to the heady days of pre-2008 growth, but market concerns make their transition move somewhat sheepishly. Regional retail sales in Europe and the US helped give a boost to consumer optimism, but only offset losses in other sectors such as housing and consumer sentiment. With the Pound under heavy selling pressure following statements from Bank of England governor Mervyn King, the EUR, as stated above, has become one of the primary beneficiaries of recent returns to strength and risk appetite.

Going into today’s trading, with little on the economic agenda, the EUR may be poised to benefit from the uncertainty surrounding the US interest rate decisions due on Wednesday. With an announcement similar to those of Britain and Europe recently regarding a delay of an interest rate hike, the EUR could be on the receiving end of further risk appetite and USD-aversion.

JPY – Japanese Bank Holiday Puts Additional Sell Pressure on Yen

The Japanese Yen appears to be returning to a bearish posture against its major currency rivals considering it ended yesterday’s trading down somewhat versus all of its major rivals. Hitting the 149.60 level against the GBP, and even dropping to the 135.50 level against the EUR, the island currency is a little worse for wear considering its latest movements.

Many economists point out, however, that the banks in Japan being closed in celebration of the autumnal equinox carries a significant role in this latest downtrend. The thinly traded JPY only appears weak momentarily until the Japanese markets come back online early Wednesday. In other Asian news, the currencies of the south Pacific (Australia and New Zealand) appear to be gaining heavily against all of their currency rivals. Their avoidance of the harshest aspects of the global downturn has made them juicy targets for risk-hungry investors. Traders would be wise to note the upward movement of these pairs and trade accordingly.

Crude Oil – Crude Falls to $70; Prices Rose too Quickly According to Investors

Investors hoping for a growth in oil prices were dismayed by news yesterday that the price for a barrel of Crude Oil may have risen too quickly from last week’s market optimism. As yesterday helped traders realize, Crude Oil may indeed be over-valued and its recent strength has come to a temporary halt. After last week’s steady yet volatile gains, the beginning of this week has started with a drop of almost $3 a barrel, closing out yesterday’s trading just above $70.

Adding to the sell pressure on Crude Oil is the surprising surge in the value of the USD in yesterday’s early trading hours, albeit offset somewhat by its retraction later in the day. But market optimism seems to have returned, but energy demand concerns persist. Crude Oil has been on the verge of reemerging as a lead investment and inflationary hedge, yet it has failed to receive the same level of support as Gold and Silver, which suggests that demand for oil is low, and precious metals are being used in its stead as a safety valve. Chances are, so long as market uncertainty remains, Crude Oil will continue to float near its current mark.

Article Source – Market Expects Low Volatility Today